The US Begins Trading a Prediction Markets ETF: What DICE Really Means

On 9 September 2026, trading began in the Tema Trading & Prediction Markets ETF (ticker DICE) on the Cboe exchange in the US. The launch of the fund reflects growing investor attention to prediction markets and to the financial-services ecosystem forming around them.

What the fund actually buys

It is important to understand what this fund buys. DICE does not trade forecasts about the outcome of specific events. It invests in companies connected with prediction markets, trading platforms and market infrastructure. Among the fund's investments are Robinhood, Coinbase and Interactive Brokers. The fund also provides indirect investment exposure to the private companies Kalshi and Polymarket through a special purpose vehicle (SPV).

These are different things. When buying an event contract, a person ties its value to a specific outcome. When buying a share of the DICE fund, an investor ties their investment to the value of the fund's portfolio of companies. Even if the use of prediction markets grew, that would not by itself guarantee an increase in the fund's value.

Why this matters for the development of prediction markets

An exchange-traded fund makes it possible to assess this sector more broadly than by trading volume in event contracts alone. Attention is now drawn to platforms, user access and the technology needed for these markets to function. In LPMI's view, the arrival of DICE is another sign that prediction markets are becoming a recognisable investment theme, even though the fund itself does not show how successfully each company in this field will perform.

Where people will encounter prediction markets

The launch of the fund also raises the question of where people will encounter prediction markets in the future: in dedicated platforms, in mainstream investing apps, or in other digital services? The answer will depend not only on trading volumes, but also on whether these products are understandable and practically useful to consumers.

This article is intended as information about the sector's development and is not investment advice.